The fallout from a surprisingly pro-Kosovo legal decision Jul 29th 2010 Belgrade and Pristina HOW wrong can you be? Almost everyone had expected the International Court of Justice to give an ambiguous opinion on the legality of Kosovo’s declaration of independence। When, on July 22nd, a summary of the opinion was read, most strained to understand the legal jargon. But one line was clear. The declaration did not, said ten of the 14 judges, violate international law. Serbs, Albanians and just about everyone else were stunned. In October 2008 Serbia had, via the UN General Assembly, asked the ICJ to give its opinion on the independence declaration of eight months earlier, and was confident of a favourable answer. After all, Kosovo was a former Serbian province (although it had been under UN rule since the end of the war in 1999). In the wake of the opinion the Serbs complained that the ICJ did not examine Kosovo’s right to secede. This is because the Serbs did not ask it to; their question was simply whether the declaration was legal. To date, 69 countries, including the United States and 22 of the EU’s 27 members, have recognised Kosovo. But many, such as Russia, China and India, have not. Each has a mixture of motives for this (see table), aside from any professed belief in territorial integrity. Russia, for example, claims to believe in this principle, but recognises South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two secessionist regions of Georgia. For some, solidarity with the Orthodox Serbs is a factor. For others, cold-war nostalgia may be at play. Vuk Jeremic, Serbia’s foreign minister, has travelled the world exploiting memories of the non-alignment policy of Tito, the former Yugoslav strongman. His wistful recollections have brought tears to eyes in Cuba and Egypt. Until last week Serbia’s plan for Kosovo was clear. Following the ICJ verdict, it would go back to the General Assembly and ask for a resolution demanding fresh talks on Kosovo’s status. One idea was that it might then propose to recognise Kosovo in exchange for formal control over the Serbian-run north of the country. On July 28th Serbia did table a UN resolution. But the word “status” was nowhere to be seen. After the ruling a chastened Serbia sent out conciliatory signals, especially to the EU, which wants to help Serbs and Kosovo Albanians discuss relatively non-contentious technical issues such as electricity and water. In parliament most of the opposition fell in behind President Boris Tadic, who said a confrontation with the big powers would lead only to ruin. For Hashim Thaci, the Kosovan prime minister, the ruling was the high point of a glorious week. On July 21st in Washington, DC, Vice-President Joe Biden had compared him to George Washington. On the same day Ramush Haradinaj, leader of Kosovo’s main opposition party, found himself behind bars. Citing witness intimidation, the appeals chamber of the UN’s Yugoslav war crimes tribunal in The Hague ordered a retrial on certain charges of which Mr Haradinaj had been acquitted in 2008. His removal from the political scene opens the way for Mr Thaci to cruise to victory in elections, this year or next. A last bit of good news was the arrest, by EU police investigating corruption, of Kosovo’s central-bank governor on July 23rd. Mr Thaci had long wanted him removed.There were fears that an ICJ opinion which came down heavily on one side or the other could spark violence in Kosovo, especially in the ethnically divided city of Mitrovica, where Serbs had stockpiled arms. It did not happen. But in the Serbian monastery of Decani, in western Kosovo, one monk said that a recent surge in abuse and stone-throwing by Albanian teenagers reminded him of the weeks leading up to the anti-Serbian riots of 2004. In recent weeks the leaders of Serbia, Croatia and Montenegro have been indulging in a veritable Yugospheric political lovefest of visits, fine words and agreements. One idea doing the rounds is a relaunch of the old Yugoslav football league, albeit under a different name. Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia may also make a joint bid to host the Euro 2020 football championships. Perhaps Kosovo could join them. Europe
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