se times
02/12/2010
Some question whether Serbia's president has significant leverage in Banja Luka.
By Igor Jovanovic for Southeast European Times in Belgrade -- 02/12/10
Some question whether Serbia's president has significant leverage in Banja Luka.
By Igor Jovanovic for Southeast European Times in Belgrade -- 02/12/10
With Bosnia and Herzegovina having concluded its latest round of elections, analysts agree that the country will come under renewed pressure to amend its constitution and push through reforms required for its EU bid.
Belgrade, widely seen as having strong pull in Republika Srpska (RS), may find itself urged to intervene on behalf of the proposed changes. But does Serbia really have the capacity to sway Bosnian Serb President Milorad Dodik and his ruling SNSD party?
Ian Bancroft, executive director of Transconflict, doubts this is the case. He says Serbia presently does not have much influence on the Bosnian entity.
"The idea that Belgrade can pressure Dodik into agreeing to constitutional reform is wishful thinking on the part of some within the international community. Belgrade simply doesn't have the sort of leverage over RS than is often presumed, in part because Dodik derives little in the way of political capital from Serbia," Bancroft said.
He also said Belgrade is reluctant to do anything that would undermine Dodik, whom it regards as a more reliable partner than other alternatives in RS.
Moreover, Bankroft argues it is debatable that Belgrade would want to pressure Dodik on in issue that will potentially damage his political standing. RS's opposition -- especially the Serb Democratic Party -- are antagonistic towards Tadic's Democratic Party politics.
"For Belgrade, therefore, Dodik is a more reliable partner then the current alternatives," Bancroft told SETimes.
Some Bosnian Serbs are put off by Serbia's increasingly pro-European stance, giving Russia a chance to step in, Bancroft said.
"With the current governing coalition in Serbia firmly committed to EU accession and beginning to talk more openly about fostering closer ties with NATO, RS provides the best opportunity for Russia to ensure its continued influence in the region," Bancroft said.
But Tanja Topic, an analyst in Banja Luka, says many in the international community believe overcoming Dodik's objections will depend heavily on Tadic. The Serbian president supported Dodik's candidacy during the presidential campaign and relations between the SNSD and the Tadic's Democratic Party are excellent.
"The majority on the international scene thinks it is the only way to influence Republika Srpska," Topic told SETimes. She added, however, that the Bosnian Serb president and his political allies will only go so far.
Belgrade, widely seen as having strong pull in Republika Srpska (RS), may find itself urged to intervene on behalf of the proposed changes. But does Serbia really have the capacity to sway Bosnian Serb President Milorad Dodik and his ruling SNSD party?
Ian Bancroft, executive director of Transconflict, doubts this is the case. He says Serbia presently does not have much influence on the Bosnian entity.
"The idea that Belgrade can pressure Dodik into agreeing to constitutional reform is wishful thinking on the part of some within the international community. Belgrade simply doesn't have the sort of leverage over RS than is often presumed, in part because Dodik derives little in the way of political capital from Serbia," Bancroft said.
He also said Belgrade is reluctant to do anything that would undermine Dodik, whom it regards as a more reliable partner than other alternatives in RS.
Moreover, Bankroft argues it is debatable that Belgrade would want to pressure Dodik on in issue that will potentially damage his political standing. RS's opposition -- especially the Serb Democratic Party -- are antagonistic towards Tadic's Democratic Party politics.
"For Belgrade, therefore, Dodik is a more reliable partner then the current alternatives," Bancroft told SETimes.
Some Bosnian Serbs are put off by Serbia's increasingly pro-European stance, giving Russia a chance to step in, Bancroft said.
"With the current governing coalition in Serbia firmly committed to EU accession and beginning to talk more openly about fostering closer ties with NATO, RS provides the best opportunity for Russia to ensure its continued influence in the region," Bancroft said.
But Tanja Topic, an analyst in Banja Luka, says many in the international community believe overcoming Dodik's objections will depend heavily on Tadic. The Serbian president supported Dodik's candidacy during the presidential campaign and relations between the SNSD and the Tadic's Democratic Party are excellent.
"The majority on the international scene thinks it is the only way to influence Republika Srpska," Topic told SETimes. She added, however, that the Bosnian Serb president and his political allies will only go so far.
"At this stage I do not expect Dodik to agree to more radical amendments to the Constitution, but smaller changes are possible," she said.
Belgrade University politics professor Predrag Simic thinks the issue will probably be shelved for some time because the international community is more focused on Kosovo. Getting Belgrade and Pristina back to the negotiations table is job number one at the moment, he said.
"Those relations are now completely frozen and will be a bigger priority for the US and the EU than the problems in Bosnia and Herzegovina," Simic told SETimes.
Simic believes Tadic does not hold great sway in RS. "After Belgrade agreed to modify the Kosovo resolution in the UN, Boris Tadic is no longer the favorite person of the Serbian nationalists. Milorad Dodik has taken his place," Simic said.
This content was commissioned for SETimes.com.
Belgrade University politics professor Predrag Simic thinks the issue will probably be shelved for some time because the international community is more focused on Kosovo. Getting Belgrade and Pristina back to the negotiations table is job number one at the moment, he said.
"Those relations are now completely frozen and will be a bigger priority for the US and the EU than the problems in Bosnia and Herzegovina," Simic told SETimes.
Simic believes Tadic does not hold great sway in RS. "After Belgrade agreed to modify the Kosovo resolution in the UN, Boris Tadic is no longer the favorite person of the Serbian nationalists. Milorad Dodik has taken his place," Simic said.
This content was commissioned for SETimes.com.
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