Sep 24th 2010, 16:24 by T.J.
EVERY few weeks Balkan-watchers speculate about possible successors to Milo Djukanović, Montenegro's prime minister. This week’s offering comes from WAZ.euobserver.com, which covers Balkan affairs from Brussels. The website points out that Mr Djukanović, aged only 48, can stake a claim to be Europe’s longest-serving national leader, having served six stints as prime minister since 1991 as well as four years as president. (Mr Djukanović's detractors will point out that between 2006 and 2008 he held no formal government position—although he was widely believed to be running things from behind the scenes as leader of the ruling party—and that Montenegro only achieved formal independence in 2006.)
Mr Djukanović, who has been nicknamed “the razor” in honour of his sharp political instincts, has said previously that he is weary of political life. So what is stopping him from quitting? WAZ.euobserver wonders if it might be the threat of prosecution by an Italian court. Mr Djukanović was among suspects targeted by an Italian anti-mafia investigation, notes the website, in connection with cigarette-smuggling and money-laundering between 1992 and 2002. Mr Djukanović has been to Bari to answer questions over the affair, but has always denied any crime. As WAZ.euobserver notes, acting heads of state and government cannot be put on trial by foreign courts, according to international law.
“Major EU capitals have signalled [Montenegro's] path towards EU membership might be easier without the veteran leader,” says the report, which identifies two possible successors to Mr Djukanović: Duško Marković, minister without portfolio in the current government, and Igor Lukšić, Montenegro’s minister of finance and deputy prime minister. Mr Lukšić, who in March wrote to The Economist to complain about an article, enjoys a good reputation among Eurocrats, according to the WAZ.euobserver story.
It would be interesting to know what Monitor, Montenegro’s leading weekly, thinks. In a recent op-ed article in the magazine, Miodrag Rašović, its deputy director, railed against the EU and the west in general. Faced with crime and human-rights abuses in Montenegro, he says, western representatives often turn their heads, "too busy promoting the interests of their fellow citizens and investors” who are trying to grab a piece of Montenegro’s natural resources. Referring to allegations that Deutsche Telekom, via its subsidiaries, had been acting improperly in the Western Balkans, he states baldly that they were bribing politicians in Montenegro and Macedonia. The company has denied the allegation.
Mr Rašović notes that José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, says that Europeans must sink or swim together. Montenegro, under the skilful guidance of Gordana Djurović, the minister in charge of European integration, has certainly been making excellent progress on this score. But Ms Djurović may disagree with Mr Rašović's reason for pursuing this route:
Despite all the EU’s weaknesses, Montenegrins should gladly accept the invitation to swim, since drowning in local Montenegrin serfdom is already guaranteed.
That brings me to my final point. Prince, later King, Nikola (pictured, above), ruled Montenegro for 58 years, from 1860 until he was deposed in 1918. A few years ago Mr Djukanović oversaw the erection of a statue of the king in Podgorica, Montenegro's capital. To equal his predecessor's longevity in office, Mr Djukanović would have to stay at the top until 2047.
the economist, eastern approaches
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