Croatian seat also likely to go to moderate candidate, early election results suggest
A moderate Muslim is about to become one of Bosnia-Herzegovina's three presidents, with another of the other leaders probably being a Serbian hardliner, election results suggested today.
Voters choose (Bosnian Serb) Serbian, (Bosnian Croat) Croatian, and (Bosniak) Bosnian Muslim presidents, along with deputies in the central, regional and cantonal parliaments.
They also cast ballots for a new president and vice-president of the Serb Republic, one of the country's two autonomous regions.
Bakir Izetbegovic, 54, the son of Bosnia's wartime leader and former president Alija Izetbegovic, was on course to win the race for the presidency's Muslim seat.
"We are going to stabilise the situation in Bosnia and to bring a better future to the citizens of Bosnia," said Izetbegovic, who is seen as more willing to work with other ethnic groups than the incumbent, Haris Silajdzic.
Zeljko Komsic, 46, the Social Democratic party incumbent, was leading the race for the Croatian seat. Like Izetbegovic, he favours a unified, multi-ethnic Bosnia.
Nebojsa Radmanovic, 61, recaptured the Serb seat in the country's tripartite presidency. His party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, was also far ahead in the parliamentary vote in the Serb Republic (one of the two entities). The party's leader and a current president of the Serb Republic, Milorad Dodik, threatened secession from Bosnia during the election campaign.
Fifteen years after the Bosnia war, the country remains deeply split between its two autonomous regions, Bosnia-Herzegovina Federation – known as the Muslim-Croat Federation – and the Serb Republic. However, Bosnia does have a joint presidency, parliament and other state institutions based in the capital, Sarajevo, in a complex and precarious political edifice supervised by the EU and Nato.
Since the last election in 2006, mistrust has grown between nationalist Croatian, Serbian and Muslim leaders, and political differences have widened between the Muslim-Croat Federation and the Serb Republic.
The Muslim-Croat Federation itself is riven by splits. According to the International Crisis Group thinktank, disputes among and between Bosniak and Bosnian Croat leaders and a dysfunctional administrative system, have paralysed decision making, as well as placed the entity on the verge of bankruptcy and triggered social unrest.
Since the 1992-95 war, in which about 100,000 people were killed, Bosnia has held five elections but has lagged in political and economic reforms and remains near the back of the queue of western Balkan countries aspiring to EU and Nato membership.
Analysts say revitalising the Muslim-Croat Federation is essential for Bosnia's survival.
"A well-functioning entity would be more attractive to Bosnian Croats and Serbs, and would be more convincing in negotiations with the Serb Republic at the state level," said the International Crisis Group. "Its successful overhaul could turn the tide and create positive momentum for state-level compromises. On the other hand, continued worsening of relations among Bosniak [Muslim], Croat and Serb leaders, compounded by a fiscal meltdown after the 2010 elections, could transform public dissatisfaction into ethnic tensions and \violence."
guardian.co.uk
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