October 21, 2010, 10:09 AM ET
By Joe Parkinson
Turkey’s rapid rebound from recession — which saw its economy tie with China in the second quarter for the fastest growth in the G20 — has attracted glittering headlines this year.
Rightly so, but labor force data published this week may prompt some sobering thoughts for the expanding herd of Turkey bulls who say the economy’s unlocked potential and youthful population make it the future ‘BRIC of Europe.’
According to Turkstat’s weighty Household Labor Force Survey for 2009, Turkey’s ‘next generation’ could face some serious problems profiting from — and contributing to — the country’s economic growth — as just 50.4% of young Turkish women and 57.1% of young Turkish men of high school age are actually enrolled in the education system.
That net average of just 53.8% of 15-19 year olds making it through the high school gates puts Turkey bottom of the class of OECD nations, miles behind the 81.5% average and even further behind the European Union average of 84.4%.
For some political analysts, the stats reflect a “huge mismatch” between the country’s educational system and its labor force, one that needs to be rectified if the country is to realize its economic potential.
“The current profile of Turkish labor force doesn’t match the economy’s move towards high value production. Let’s face it: we don’t have a labor force that can be productive in high-end services,” says Atilla Yesilada, an analyst with economics consultancy Global Source Partners. “Without thorough reform Turkey will move up the ladder of rich nations but millions of kids will be left behind,” he adds.
Perhaps comparing the OECD rich-nations club with Turkey, which suffers relatively high illiteracy and infant mortality rates in its eastern provinces, is a touch unfair.
But even compared to Brazil and Russia, where about three quarters of kids are attending high-school, the numbers look remarkably weak.
Istanbul’s Bahcesehir University dug deeper into the stats for a research paper titled “The Young Lack Human Capital,” which analyzes what the young Turks neither enrolled in school nor participating in the labor market are doing. Predictably, the results are not encouraging: the majority of young women stay at home and most of the young men believe the labor market is closed to them because they don’t have the relevant skills. Of those who have found work, 66% are paid below the minimum wage.
The report says reform is necessary to embed and sustain Turkey’s stellar economic growth, and concludes with some simple advice for Ankara:
“Given that these young people already feel left out of the economic and social life at age 15 to 19, it is crucial that they are integrated back in the educational system to provide them with the opportunity of leading productive adult lives.”
Turkey’s rapid rebound from recession — which saw its economy tie with China in the second quarter for the fastest growth in the G20 — has attracted glittering headlines this year.
Rightly so, but labor force data published this week may prompt some sobering thoughts for the expanding herd of Turkey bulls who say the economy’s unlocked potential and youthful population make it the future ‘BRIC of Europe.’
According to Turkstat’s weighty Household Labor Force Survey for 2009, Turkey’s ‘next generation’ could face some serious problems profiting from — and contributing to — the country’s economic growth — as just 50.4% of young Turkish women and 57.1% of young Turkish men of high school age are actually enrolled in the education system.
That net average of just 53.8% of 15-19 year olds making it through the high school gates puts Turkey bottom of the class of OECD nations, miles behind the 81.5% average and even further behind the European Union average of 84.4%.
For some political analysts, the stats reflect a “huge mismatch” between the country’s educational system and its labor force, one that needs to be rectified if the country is to realize its economic potential.
“The current profile of Turkish labor force doesn’t match the economy’s move towards high value production. Let’s face it: we don’t have a labor force that can be productive in high-end services,” says Atilla Yesilada, an analyst with economics consultancy Global Source Partners. “Without thorough reform Turkey will move up the ladder of rich nations but millions of kids will be left behind,” he adds.
Perhaps comparing the OECD rich-nations club with Turkey, which suffers relatively high illiteracy and infant mortality rates in its eastern provinces, is a touch unfair.
But even compared to Brazil and Russia, where about three quarters of kids are attending high-school, the numbers look remarkably weak.
Istanbul’s Bahcesehir University dug deeper into the stats for a research paper titled “The Young Lack Human Capital,” which analyzes what the young Turks neither enrolled in school nor participating in the labor market are doing. Predictably, the results are not encouraging: the majority of young women stay at home and most of the young men believe the labor market is closed to them because they don’t have the relevant skills. Of those who have found work, 66% are paid below the minimum wage.
The report says reform is necessary to embed and sustain Turkey’s stellar economic growth, and concludes with some simple advice for Ankara:
“Given that these young people already feel left out of the economic and social life at age 15 to 19, it is crucial that they are integrated back in the educational system to provide them with the opportunity of leading productive adult lives.”
the wall street journal
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