By DAN BILEFSKY
Published: October 3, 2010
Published: October 3, 2010
PRAGUE — Fifteen years after the ethnic war in Bosnia ended, an outspoken nationalist Bosnian Serb leader was expected to triumph in elections there on Sunday, reinforcing ethnic divisions and threatening to rip apart the fragile country, according to political leaders and analysts.
The United States-brokered 1995 Dayton accord, which divided the country of Bosnia and Herzegovina into two entities — a Muslim-Croat Federation and a Serbian Republic — ended a war in which more than 100,000 people were killed, a majority of them Muslims. But the byzantine political system that emerged has magnified ethnic enmities.
With Bosnia’s economy struggling and its prospects for European Union and NATO membership appearing increasingly remote, the country is in need of national unity. But analysts say that collective economic hardship has failed to unite voters across the ethnic divide in parliamentary and presidential elections. They say the vote threatened to entrench the political deadlock that has impeded progress toward greater integration with Europe.
Sead Numanovic, editor of Dnevni Avaz, a Bosnian newspaper, said stasis and separatism were eroding the resolve of even moderate Bosnians. “We face the threat of secession; our economy is in recession; poverty is everywhere; corruption is rampant,” he said. “Bosnians are feeling humiliated as our country’s very existence is in question.”
Underlining the challenge to the country’s future, analysts said, is the growing popularity of Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb prime minister, a strong-willed former basketball player who has repeatedly called for the Serbian Republic to secede. He appears likely to be elected president of the Serbian Republic.
Mr. Dodik has argued that Bosnia’s breakup is all but inevitable. He recently told Reuters that he was convinced that the Serbian Republic “will become independent within the next four years.” .
He said, “It is our political right to decide on our status.”
His intransigence has been echoed by his longtime political rival Haris Silajdzic, the Muslim who is hoping to retain his spot on Bosnia’s three-seat presidency, held by a Muslim, a Croat and a Serb. He has argued that the Serbian Republic’s very existence has legitimized genocide.
But in a sign that moderation could prevail among Bosnian Muslims, the Central Election Commission said late Sunday that early returns from nearly 74 percent of polling stations showed Bakir Izetbegovic leading the race for the presidency’s Muslim seat. He campaigned for dialogue among Bosnia’s ethnic groups and is viewed as far more conciliatory than Mr. Silajdzic.
Zeljko Komsic, from the multiethnic Social Democrats, looked poised to win the Croat slot of the presidency.
It is a sign of how simmering tensions remain, however, that rival ethnic groups are still arguing over the facts surrounding the massacre of more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys at Srebrenica during the Bosnian war in 1995, for which wartime Bosnian Serb leaders have been indicted on genocide charges at the war crimes tribunal in The Hague.
In April, Mr. Dodik questioned the official number of Muslims killed at Srebrenica, citing research showing that several hundred listed as missing or dead were still alive. Bosnian Muslims objected that he was seeking to rewrite history.
Analysts say that Bosnian leaders from all sides will need to confront the country’s economic challenges. Bosnia’s economy shrank by 3.4 percent last year, according to the International Monetary Fund, which extended a rescue package worth about $1.6 billion to Bosnia in 2009. Unemployment was about 43 percent in July.
Beyond the economic challenges, some observers say that the world is turning its back on Bosnia. Its security is guaranteed by 2,000 European Union peacekeepers. But Western diplomats say European countries have been clamoring for at least a partial withdrawal. They say the United States, distracted by wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, no longer considers Bosnia a priority.
Anita Kapo, a 22-year-old design student voting Sunday, said Bosnia was so paralyzed by nationalism that voting seemed futile. Her family escaped to Germany during the war. “I keep trying and trying and trying to be positive about Bosnia,” she said. “But nothing ever changes.”
Joanna Kakissis contributed reporting from Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
With Bosnia’s economy struggling and its prospects for European Union and NATO membership appearing increasingly remote, the country is in need of national unity. But analysts say that collective economic hardship has failed to unite voters across the ethnic divide in parliamentary and presidential elections. They say the vote threatened to entrench the political deadlock that has impeded progress toward greater integration with Europe.
Sead Numanovic, editor of Dnevni Avaz, a Bosnian newspaper, said stasis and separatism were eroding the resolve of even moderate Bosnians. “We face the threat of secession; our economy is in recession; poverty is everywhere; corruption is rampant,” he said. “Bosnians are feeling humiliated as our country’s very existence is in question.”
Underlining the challenge to the country’s future, analysts said, is the growing popularity of Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb prime minister, a strong-willed former basketball player who has repeatedly called for the Serbian Republic to secede. He appears likely to be elected president of the Serbian Republic.
Mr. Dodik has argued that Bosnia’s breakup is all but inevitable. He recently told Reuters that he was convinced that the Serbian Republic “will become independent within the next four years.” .
He said, “It is our political right to decide on our status.”
His intransigence has been echoed by his longtime political rival Haris Silajdzic, the Muslim who is hoping to retain his spot on Bosnia’s three-seat presidency, held by a Muslim, a Croat and a Serb. He has argued that the Serbian Republic’s very existence has legitimized genocide.
But in a sign that moderation could prevail among Bosnian Muslims, the Central Election Commission said late Sunday that early returns from nearly 74 percent of polling stations showed Bakir Izetbegovic leading the race for the presidency’s Muslim seat. He campaigned for dialogue among Bosnia’s ethnic groups and is viewed as far more conciliatory than Mr. Silajdzic.
Zeljko Komsic, from the multiethnic Social Democrats, looked poised to win the Croat slot of the presidency.
It is a sign of how simmering tensions remain, however, that rival ethnic groups are still arguing over the facts surrounding the massacre of more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys at Srebrenica during the Bosnian war in 1995, for which wartime Bosnian Serb leaders have been indicted on genocide charges at the war crimes tribunal in The Hague.
In April, Mr. Dodik questioned the official number of Muslims killed at Srebrenica, citing research showing that several hundred listed as missing or dead were still alive. Bosnian Muslims objected that he was seeking to rewrite history.
Analysts say that Bosnian leaders from all sides will need to confront the country’s economic challenges. Bosnia’s economy shrank by 3.4 percent last year, according to the International Monetary Fund, which extended a rescue package worth about $1.6 billion to Bosnia in 2009. Unemployment was about 43 percent in July.
Beyond the economic challenges, some observers say that the world is turning its back on Bosnia. Its security is guaranteed by 2,000 European Union peacekeepers. But Western diplomats say European countries have been clamoring for at least a partial withdrawal. They say the United States, distracted by wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, no longer considers Bosnia a priority.
Anita Kapo, a 22-year-old design student voting Sunday, said Bosnia was so paralyzed by nationalism that voting seemed futile. Her family escaped to Germany during the war. “I keep trying and trying and trying to be positive about Bosnia,” she said. “But nothing ever changes.”
Joanna Kakissis contributed reporting from Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
ny times
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