A plea fot the 7th cavalry

the economist

Nov 19th 2010, 15:39 by T.J.
IN BALKAN circles most minds are concentrating on Kosovo at the moment. The EU hopes to launch talks between Serbia and Kosovo very soon, perhaps even before Kosovo’s elections on December 12th. However, most experts acknowledge that in the long run Bosnia presents a bigger problem. Although Milorad Dodik, the newly installed president of the Republika Srpska, the Serb part of Bosnia, delivered some conciliatory words at his inauguration on November 15th, he remains, with his fiery rhetoric about the dissolution of Bosnia, the lead villain in the eyes of many Bosnia-based western diplomats. They are wondering what to do next. One reliably sourced document doing the diplomatic rounds urges the Americans to get to grips with the country:
“Even though the rest of the region has moved forward, for Bosnia and Herzegovina the last four years have largely been lost, as the country has stagnated and begun moving backwards. The current trajectory—if left unchanged—risks eventual state dissolution. The international community has lost sight of the dangers and frequently avoids facing the real issues. More robust US engagement with the EU is required to restore reform momentum.”
The report continues:
“Instead of major reforms, there have been increasing challenges to the Dayton Agreement from Republika Srpska (RS) leaders, who advocate the independence of RS while declaring BiH unsustainable and deliberately provoking other nationalities. These same leaders regularly and deliberately undermine the proper functioning of numerous state institutions and challenge international court rulings on genocide and war crimes. Although Dodik toned down his public rhetoric somewhat since the elections, he has made it clear that he plans to continue to weaken the state and roll back reforms.”
Despite these difficulties, argues the paper, the Peace Implementation Council, which oversees the now moribund Office of the High Representative, remains focused on the bureaucratic task of closing the OHR, not on dealing with Bosnia's real problems.
“The EU is concentrating on establishing the External Action Service and is unable to establish a reinforced or viable alternative to OHR. Nor does it seem to support the work of OHR. Erosion of international support for the OHR mission has in large part contributed to the stagnation of the last four years. Clearly OHR needs to depart once the country is on the right track, but given the serious challenges, the time is far from right: further weakening of OHR will only accelerate the negative trends.”
So what needs to be done? Our source is explicit. Apologies if some of this is a bit technical:
“To halt the backward slide and recreate momentum for reform towards a self-sustainable Euro-Atlantic future, the US needs to:
- Refocus the international community on the real challenges facing BiH, not future OHR/EU administrative configurations - Exert renewed US leadership, until such time as the EU provides a viable and functional alternative to the OHR - Establish clear red lines for politicians on what is acceptable and what is not. RS independence rhetoric must no longer be tolerated - Generate international support for state institutions: rollback of reforms must not be tolerated - Assist with comprehensive, locally-led constitutional reform via a step-by-step approach focusing on efficient governance, with EU/US support - Insist on adherence to the 5+2 agenda. The RS State Property Law will come into force shortly and may require use of Bonn Powers - Support creative thinking on Defense Property, in line with PIC and NATO guidelines. - Maintain the 5+2 criteria for transition/closure of OHR. If we give up on 5+2, IC credibility will suffer greatly - Insist on OHR keeping the Bonn powers”
Got that, Mr Obama? Whether much of this comes to pass remains to be seen. Much of it is easy to recommend, harder to do. How, for example, do you propose to put a stop to independence rhetoric from Republika Srpska leaders?

the economist

http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2010/11/bosnia