se times
04/11/2010
A moderate earthquake Wednesday highlighted Istanbul's unease about the potential for a devastating tremor.
By Alexander Christie-Miller for Southeast European Times in Istanbul -- 04/11/10
A moderate earthquake Wednesday highlighted Istanbul's unease about the potential for a devastating tremor.
By Alexander Christie-Miller for Southeast European Times in Istanbul -- 04/11/10
Many in Turkey's largest city have been wary that any massive earthquake would devastate Istanbul, but fears grew after a 5.3-magnitude earthquake struck the Gulf of Soros off the Aegean Sea in western Turkey on Wednesday (November 3rd).
The quake caused panic among residents in Canakkale, a province near the gulf, but no injuries were reported.
The quake closely followed a 4.4 magnitude tremor early last month where the epicentre was beneath the Sea of Marmara. Although many could not feel the quake, it got the attention of Istanbul's 14 million inhabitants.
Just 30km from the city lies the North Anatolian fault, where the Turkish and Eurasian tectonic plates move past each other at a rate of 25mm a year.
The fault's section beneath the Marmara Sea has not moved significantly for 250 years, according to Sinan Ozeren, a geology professor at Istanbul Technical University.
He does not rule out a quake registering at least 7.5 on the Richter scale, and generating a 5m-high tsunami.
A perennial question is whether Istanbul is prepared to deal with a massive earthquake.
Turkey got a wake-up call in 1999, when a 7.6-magnitude quake devastated Izmit, 80km east of Istanbul. At least 17,000 people died and more than half a million were left homeless.
Decades of shoddy building practices and a lack of emergency preparedness complicated the situation. Perhaps more importantly, it revealed the high probability of a similar disaster striking closer to Istanbul, within the next 30 years.
Since 1939, six quakes with magnitudes greater than 7 have struck on the fault, along a chain leading east to west. Next in line is Istanbul.
"The rupture at Izmit increased the stress to the west of the North Anatolian Fault," Ulster University Geophysics Professor Suleyman Nalbant said.
"Now it is the Istanbul segments that we need to watch, and, of course, this has shifted people in terms of thinking," he added.
The government has responded by tightening building codes and improving key public infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, pipelines and highways.
However, the head of Istanbul's Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Mustafa Erdik, argues that the main risk is the vast and outdated private housing sector.
"Everyone owns their property here, and whether they fix it or not is their own problem. They have so many other more immediate problems, they defer it," Erdik told SETimes.
According to a study by three Istanbul universities, nearly a third of the 147,000 surveyed buildings in six districts are at risk; 77% of all structures in the Gungoren and Bahcelievler districts face potential damage.
Erdik, who is at the forefront of Turkey's mitigation efforts, believes a major quake may cause 25,000 casualties. A recent Japanese study, however, put the number at 40,000.
The quake caused panic among residents in Canakkale, a province near the gulf, but no injuries were reported.
The quake closely followed a 4.4 magnitude tremor early last month where the epicentre was beneath the Sea of Marmara. Although many could not feel the quake, it got the attention of Istanbul's 14 million inhabitants.
Just 30km from the city lies the North Anatolian fault, where the Turkish and Eurasian tectonic plates move past each other at a rate of 25mm a year.
The fault's section beneath the Marmara Sea has not moved significantly for 250 years, according to Sinan Ozeren, a geology professor at Istanbul Technical University.
He does not rule out a quake registering at least 7.5 on the Richter scale, and generating a 5m-high tsunami.
A perennial question is whether Istanbul is prepared to deal with a massive earthquake.
Turkey got a wake-up call in 1999, when a 7.6-magnitude quake devastated Izmit, 80km east of Istanbul. At least 17,000 people died and more than half a million were left homeless.
Decades of shoddy building practices and a lack of emergency preparedness complicated the situation. Perhaps more importantly, it revealed the high probability of a similar disaster striking closer to Istanbul, within the next 30 years.
Since 1939, six quakes with magnitudes greater than 7 have struck on the fault, along a chain leading east to west. Next in line is Istanbul.
"The rupture at Izmit increased the stress to the west of the North Anatolian Fault," Ulster University Geophysics Professor Suleyman Nalbant said.
"Now it is the Istanbul segments that we need to watch, and, of course, this has shifted people in terms of thinking," he added.
The government has responded by tightening building codes and improving key public infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, pipelines and highways.
However, the head of Istanbul's Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Mustafa Erdik, argues that the main risk is the vast and outdated private housing sector.
"Everyone owns their property here, and whether they fix it or not is their own problem. They have so many other more immediate problems, they defer it," Erdik told SETimes.
According to a study by three Istanbul universities, nearly a third of the 147,000 surveyed buildings in six districts are at risk; 77% of all structures in the Gungoren and Bahcelievler districts face potential damage.
Erdik, who is at the forefront of Turkey's mitigation efforts, believes a major quake may cause 25,000 casualties. A recent Japanese study, however, put the number at 40,000.
A report released earlier this year by a Turkish parliamentary commission concluded the government is failing to shore up substandard buildings, punish those who violate building codes and fail to control urban development.
Professor Ozeren agrees with that assessment. "Regulation-wise, Istanbul is now as good as anywhere, but the problem is applying those regulations. Irrational development of the city, [as well as] illegal building, is a general problem," he said.
Given the nature of the problem, many residents feel helpless. In a recent survey by Istanbul Technical University, 67% of respondents said they expected to die or lose family members in the event of a major quake. But significantly, 39% said they had done nothing to mitigate the risk.
"Substantial damage to Istanbul would be catastrophic for Turkey," Ozeren said. "I'd say it is perhaps the most major threat that the country faces, but politicians talk very little about it."
This content was commissioned for SETimes.com.
Professor Ozeren agrees with that assessment. "Regulation-wise, Istanbul is now as good as anywhere, but the problem is applying those regulations. Irrational development of the city, [as well as] illegal building, is a general problem," he said.
Given the nature of the problem, many residents feel helpless. In a recent survey by Istanbul Technical University, 67% of respondents said they expected to die or lose family members in the event of a major quake. But significantly, 39% said they had done nothing to mitigate the risk.
"Substantial damage to Istanbul would be catastrophic for Turkey," Ozeren said. "I'd say it is perhaps the most major threat that the country faces, but politicians talk very little about it."
This content was commissioned for SETimes.com.
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