se times
02/11/2010
A terror attack in Istanbul could prove a litmus test of both sides' commitment to finding a solution to Turkey's decades-old Kurdish issue.
By Alexander Christie-Miller in Istanbul for Southeast European Times -- 02/11/10
A terror attack in Istanbul could prove a litmus test of both sides' commitment to finding a solution to Turkey's decades-old Kurdish issue.
By Alexander Christie-Miller in Istanbul for Southeast European Times -- 02/11/10
No organisation has yet claimed responsibility for the suicide bomb attack that created havoc in Istanbul's central Taksim Square on Sunday (October 31st).
Analysts, however, agree on one point: the bomber -- and whoever else may have aided him -- was likely hoping to disrupt the current peace overtures between the Turkish government and Kurdish rebels.
The attacker chose to strike as a ceasefire expired. It had been called by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been waging a 26-year insurgency and is seeking greater autonomy for the country's 15 million Kurds.
Though the PKK has seldom resorted to suicide bomb attacks in recent years, the targets -- police officers stationed on the square -- were chosen in line with its policy of targeting representatives of the Turkish state.
But on Monday, a spokesman for the organisation reaffirmed to SETimes earlier statements that the PKK was not responsible for the latest bombing.
"Neither the management of the organisation, nor any unit that is part of us has anything to do with this action," said Roj Welat, speaking from the PKK's headquarters in the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq.
The bomber injured 32 people including 15 police officers and 17 civilians. Only days earlier a top PKK commander, Murat Karayilan, told the newspaper Radikal that the organisation would no longer target civilians.
"In any action by the PKK, even in cities, not causing harm to civilians will be our fundamental principle," he said.
There was also a widespread expectation among analysts that the PKK would announce an extension to its ceasefire soon after the October 31st expiration. It has since extended it to Turkey's general election in June 2011.
Rogue Kurdish militants or Turkish ultra-nationalists opposed to a peaceful solution to the conflict are now the prime suspects, according to Henri Barkey of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
"Whenever you have situations like this, when there is the possibility of any positive movement, you will always have either groups from within the organisation or agent provocateurs from outside it making the process more difficult. The question is: can the government keep its cool?"
The bombing could indeed prove a litmus test of the seriousness of the government and the rebels in searching for a genuine peace solution.
In the past, the Turks have been quick to blame the PKK for any bombing, but this time ministers have been measured in their responses.
"There has been no panic, they haven't accused anybody," said Barkey. "They have shown all the signs that they want to go for a solution now for real."
But Emrullah Uslu, a terrorism expert at Istanbul's Yeditepe University, said evidence garnered by investigators points to PKK involvement, which if confirmed, could create an awkward situation for the rebels.
He also said that three months earlier Turkey's secret service had warned security forces around the country of a possible attack by two PKK-affiliated suicide bombers.
He believes a splinter group is likely to be behind the bombing. "If you look at any organisation, the IRA or ETA, when people want peace you always have a faction who don't want peace," he told SETimes.
"This is a big organisation. There are 6,000 [guerrillas] in the mountains, and hundreds of thousands of followers."
Even if both sides are determined not to let the bombing throw negotiations off course, proof of rogue PKK involvement could prove difficult for the government.
Analysts, however, agree on one point: the bomber -- and whoever else may have aided him -- was likely hoping to disrupt the current peace overtures between the Turkish government and Kurdish rebels.
The attacker chose to strike as a ceasefire expired. It had been called by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been waging a 26-year insurgency and is seeking greater autonomy for the country's 15 million Kurds.
Though the PKK has seldom resorted to suicide bomb attacks in recent years, the targets -- police officers stationed on the square -- were chosen in line with its policy of targeting representatives of the Turkish state.
But on Monday, a spokesman for the organisation reaffirmed to SETimes earlier statements that the PKK was not responsible for the latest bombing.
"Neither the management of the organisation, nor any unit that is part of us has anything to do with this action," said Roj Welat, speaking from the PKK's headquarters in the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq.
The bomber injured 32 people including 15 police officers and 17 civilians. Only days earlier a top PKK commander, Murat Karayilan, told the newspaper Radikal that the organisation would no longer target civilians.
"In any action by the PKK, even in cities, not causing harm to civilians will be our fundamental principle," he said.
There was also a widespread expectation among analysts that the PKK would announce an extension to its ceasefire soon after the October 31st expiration. It has since extended it to Turkey's general election in June 2011.
Rogue Kurdish militants or Turkish ultra-nationalists opposed to a peaceful solution to the conflict are now the prime suspects, according to Henri Barkey of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
"Whenever you have situations like this, when there is the possibility of any positive movement, you will always have either groups from within the organisation or agent provocateurs from outside it making the process more difficult. The question is: can the government keep its cool?"
The bombing could indeed prove a litmus test of the seriousness of the government and the rebels in searching for a genuine peace solution.
In the past, the Turks have been quick to blame the PKK for any bombing, but this time ministers have been measured in their responses.
"There has been no panic, they haven't accused anybody," said Barkey. "They have shown all the signs that they want to go for a solution now for real."
But Emrullah Uslu, a terrorism expert at Istanbul's Yeditepe University, said evidence garnered by investigators points to PKK involvement, which if confirmed, could create an awkward situation for the rebels.
He also said that three months earlier Turkey's secret service had warned security forces around the country of a possible attack by two PKK-affiliated suicide bombers.
He believes a splinter group is likely to be behind the bombing. "If you look at any organisation, the IRA or ETA, when people want peace you always have a faction who don't want peace," he told SETimes.
"This is a big organisation. There are 6,000 [guerrillas] in the mountains, and hundreds of thousands of followers."
Even if both sides are determined not to let the bombing throw negotiations off course, proof of rogue PKK involvement could prove difficult for the government.
"If it's proved that this was a PKK job, Turkish nationalists will say that on the one hand they're negotiating and on the other they're continuing with the killing."
Other than the bomber himself, no one died in Sunday's blast and this has no doubt helped both sides maintain composure and refrain from nationalist posturing.
But as negotiations progress, the commitment of both sides may be tested again.
"You have always, always had events like this in any similar situation that are designed to undermine the process," said Barkey. "Sometimes they are successful, sometimes they are not."
This content was commissioned for SETimes.com.
Other than the bomber himself, no one died in Sunday's blast and this has no doubt helped both sides maintain composure and refrain from nationalist posturing.
But as negotiations progress, the commitment of both sides may be tested again.
"You have always, always had events like this in any similar situation that are designed to undermine the process," said Barkey. "Sometimes they are successful, sometimes they are not."
This content was commissioned for SETimes.com.
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