waz.euobserver
ZELJKO PANTELIC
Today @ 09:43 CET
They attacked each other during the election campaign and there is not much love lost between their leaders, but the 'Big Four' political parties that won last month's general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are set to form the country's next government.
The Big Four are the Bosniak Social Democrats (SDP) led by Zlatko Lagumdzija – arguably the least mono-ethnic party in the country – Sulejman Tihic's Bosniak SDA, the Serb Social Democrats (SNSD) under Milorad Dodik and Dragan Cavic's Croat HDZ. The parties are likely to build a coalition, drawing on additional support from smaller parties.
Today @ 09:43 CET
They attacked each other during the election campaign and there is not much love lost between their leaders, but the 'Big Four' political parties that won last month's general elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are set to form the country's next government.
The Big Four are the Bosniak Social Democrats (SDP) led by Zlatko Lagumdzija – arguably the least mono-ethnic party in the country – Sulejman Tihic's Bosniak SDA, the Serb Social Democrats (SNSD) under Milorad Dodik and Dragan Cavic's Croat HDZ. The parties are likely to build a coalition, drawing on additional support from smaller parties.
According to the country's rules, the leader of the party with the most votes will invite the others for consultation on a government based on a majority in the 42-seat national parliament. It is still not clear who the host will be in this case, as the official election results have yet to be announced. According to the latest figures, the SNSD is ahead of the SPD by 3,000 votes.
The key for the formation of the new government is in the hands of Mr Dodik and Mr Lagumdzij – close allies in the 1990s but now fierce rivals. Mr Tihic is seen as the most credible person to bring about a reconciliation of the two leaders, but he is clear what his position is.
"The SDA wants to be part of the process which could bring an agreement," said Mr Tihic, "but I don't want to be a coordinator between Mr Dodik and Mr Lagumdzija."
He does, however, have good relations with both leaders and his SDA will be a partner of Mr Dodik's and Mr Lagumdzija's parties in the two political 'entities', the Federation BiH and Republika Srpska.
Mr Dodik has managed to convince other Serbian parties to cooperate on a state level despite their differences in Republika Srpska. He also seems increasingly open to the idea of Mr Lagumdzija or another SDP candidate becoming prime minister, a position with limited power in Bosnia.
The whole post-electoral process is perfectly in line with the traditional Bosnian saying: "It's bad for me with you – but even harder without you". A Big Four government, despite commanding a large majority in parliament, would need a lot of good will from all sides to finally move Bosnia from the current deadlock.
The differences among the main players on almost all important questions, including constitutional reform and distribution of state assets, are immense, but the alternative would look even bleaker.
Any central government in Sarajevo that does not include representatives of the two most important Serb and Croat parties, the SNSD and HDZ, would be counterproductive. It would also be more dangerous for the stability and security of the country than the proverbial institutional paralysis caused by the clash of coalition partners from different sides of the ethnic divide.
The key for the formation of the new government is in the hands of Mr Dodik and Mr Lagumdzij – close allies in the 1990s but now fierce rivals. Mr Tihic is seen as the most credible person to bring about a reconciliation of the two leaders, but he is clear what his position is.
"The SDA wants to be part of the process which could bring an agreement," said Mr Tihic, "but I don't want to be a coordinator between Mr Dodik and Mr Lagumdzija."
He does, however, have good relations with both leaders and his SDA will be a partner of Mr Dodik's and Mr Lagumdzija's parties in the two political 'entities', the Federation BiH and Republika Srpska.
Mr Dodik has managed to convince other Serbian parties to cooperate on a state level despite their differences in Republika Srpska. He also seems increasingly open to the idea of Mr Lagumdzija or another SDP candidate becoming prime minister, a position with limited power in Bosnia.
The whole post-electoral process is perfectly in line with the traditional Bosnian saying: "It's bad for me with you – but even harder without you". A Big Four government, despite commanding a large majority in parliament, would need a lot of good will from all sides to finally move Bosnia from the current deadlock.
The differences among the main players on almost all important questions, including constitutional reform and distribution of state assets, are immense, but the alternative would look even bleaker.
Any central government in Sarajevo that does not include representatives of the two most important Serb and Croat parties, the SNSD and HDZ, would be counterproductive. It would also be more dangerous for the stability and security of the country than the proverbial institutional paralysis caused by the clash of coalition partners from different sides of the ethnic divide.
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